Profiling systematic uncertainties in Simulation-Based Inference with Factorizable Normalizing Flows

Generative AI & LLMs
Published: arXiv: 2602.13184v1
Authors

Davide Valsecchi Mauro Donegà Rainer Wallny

Abstract

Unbinned likelihood fits aim at maximizing the information one can extract from experimental data, yet their application in realistic statistical analyses is often hindered by the computational cost of profiling systematic uncertainties. Additionally, current machine learning-based inference methods are typically limited to estimating scalar parameters in a multidimensional space rather than full differential distributions. We propose a general framework for Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) that efficiently profiles nuisance parameters while measuring multivariate Distributions of Interest (DoI), defined as learnable invertible transformations of the feature space. We introduce Factorizable Normalizing Flows to model systematic variations as parametric deformations of a nominal density, preserving tractability without combinatorial explosion. Crucially, we develop an amortized training strategy that learns the conditional dependence of the DoI on nuisance parameters in a single optimization process, bypassing the need for repetitive training during the likelihood scan. This allows for the simultaneous extraction of the underlying distribution and the robust profiling of nuisances. The method is validated on a synthetic dataset emulating a high-energy physics measurement with multiple systematic sources, demonstrating its potential for unbinned, functional measurements in complex analyses.

Paper Summary

Problem
In high-energy physics, researchers want to extract as much information as possible from experimental data. However, current methods for analyzing data are often hindered by the computational cost of accounting for systematic uncertainties, which are factors that can affect the accuracy of the results. This makes it difficult to get precise measurements and test hypotheses.
Key Innovation
This paper proposes a new framework for analyzing data that efficiently profiles systematic uncertainties while measuring multivariate distributions of interest. The key innovation is the use of factorizable normalizing flows to model systematic variations as parametric deformations of a nominal density. This approach allows for the simultaneous extraction of the underlying distribution and the robust profiling of nuisances.
Practical Impact
This research has the potential to revolutionize the way high-energy physics data is analyzed. By allowing for the efficient profiling of systematic uncertainties, researchers can get more accurate measurements and test hypotheses more effectively. This could lead to breakthroughs in our understanding of the universe and the development of new technologies.
Analogy / Intuitive Explanation
Imagine trying to measure the shape of a mountain by taking a picture from a fixed location. If the camera is tilted or the mountain is covered in fog, the picture will be distorted, making it difficult to get an accurate measurement. Systematic uncertainties are like the tilt or fog that can distort our view of the data. The new framework proposed in this paper is like a special lens that can correct for these distortions, allowing us to get a clear and accurate picture of the mountain (i.e., the underlying distribution).
Paper Information
Categories:
hep-ph physics.data-an stat.ML
Published Date:

arXiv ID:

2602.13184v1

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